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October 2007 Archives

October 15, 2007

Is it legal to lie about your political party affiliation?

As the political cogs ramp up towards this November, and next, let's take a look at some crucial issues about the functioning of the public interest.

Regardless of what the media tells you about Iraq being the big issue the credibility of our government is the big issue - with the President's, and Congress's, aproval ratings at all time lows.

The typical partisan approach would have Republicans telling you that the public does not matter and Democrats telling you that the group rules over all. The fact is that we are a Constitutional Democracy with very strong guarantees of individual rights. Our society is built up of RESPONSIBLE individuals making lawful decisions, all of which have some impact on the greater good. No more, no less we are all spinning around the gravitas that is the United States.

The Washington Supreme Court appears to be ignoring the responsibility with their recent ruling regarding the responsibility of candidates to tell the truth.

Curiously, some of these same issues are at play in State AG McKenna's defense of the top two primary system at the U.S. Supreme Court.

I've done some research on an aspect of this issue. Did you know that, by law, no County can even tabulate the votes of independents or crossovers? As for me, I've no objection to the parties selecting their own candidates, but to block the First Ammendment rights of indepedents in a government funded matter strikes this commenter as criminally seditious.

I think most of the local cognoscenti would agree that the center of legal practice in Washington State is downtown Seattle. This makes the current, 'open seat' race for King County Prosecutor very important. There has been a well executed effort to portray the 50 year Republican control of this office as above Partisan politics. David Postman comments on this dynamic on his blog.

Prominent Democratic Attorney Jenny Durkan, counsel to Gregoire in her electoral 'challenge' has endorsed Republican Satterberg. She herself addresses the subjects on non-partisanship and the public interest in an op-ed.

Although Durkan makes a case for the law being non-partisan the FAILURE of the profession to defend the rights of the public against transgressors of the right and left groups seems to be the only thing furthered. Ms. Durkan appears to be responding, in part, to arguments I've made about the profession's responsibility to the public in a Washington State Bar filing against her pal, John McKay. Now this was definitely a case of tagging along on a high profile case, but I do think the issue merits it, as here, here, and here.

Meanwhile Governor Gregoire accuses Ron Sims of lying, Repulican's attack party switcher Richard Pope, and Senior Republican Jim Ellis proclaims to be the embodiment of the public interest.

Heyo!

October 17, 2007

Everybody's a Transit Expert

I've always liked Danny Westneat, but his latest has me wondering as he proclaims to be a better financial analyst than Brian Sonntag evaluating Sound Transit.

There are two things we know for sure about Sound Transit - that we haven't seen any of the SeaTac-Dowtown line work, so we have NO BASELINE to realistically compare it to anything - and that Transit finance numbers are always underestimated dramatically. It is quite safe to say that this is not a ten billlion dollar project.

We also know that the last three votes to expand Portland 's Max system have failed.

I know, and you should too, that we can do much better. No doubt 'they' are already making excuses about why this project failed because of the 'public', not because the plan, or 'they', are losers.

I'm not anti-light rail - but we need to insist we do it right - and if 'they' refuse - as is evidenced here - 'they' need to be fired for insubordination- or for soliciting a fraud, to be more specific. The only line that even merits discussion for expansion at this point is the Tacoma line - and that only modestly. Fairly, I guess it would also make sense to seek funds to fulfill the original promise made to voters - the dropped stations and the U-District leg. Along that line a starter system in Everett and Bellevue would also make sense. Bellevue might well choose a bus tunnel though - following the already established investment phasing plan of the Seattle Hybrid Tunnel. That would be a smart continuation of the best of the Status Quo, not the worst - rewarding those project ideas, and people, that have earned it, yes?

BTW - on the subject of global warming - how about spending your own money, wisely, to buy an electric vehicle? Or for that matter, take the money you save from riding the bus and invest it in a green investment fund?

Heyo!

October 25, 2007

Never ask a ladies weight...

However if one does a little bit of thinking, and research, such things can be figured out.

Witness Seattle City Council Candidate Venus Velasquez and her recent publicity - from her statements we know both an estimate of her BAC content and the amount of alcohol she consumed. From this we can figure out her approximate weight, within the parameters of the likely time passed from consumption to field testing.

Alcohol - Weight Table

With a field estimated BAC of .115 and, per Velasquez, a consumption of two Drinks - we can calculate her weight at below 67 pounds. (the amount below corresponding to the effects of time)

Now, the courts may not be interested in Anorexia, but as for me, I'm concerned - even if Velasquez is a whole lot classier than the similar situationed sitting County Councilmember Jane Hague (R-Bellevue).

Heyo!

October 29, 2007

The Media is the Message

A thumb's up for a new local online publication, Crosscut.

Publisher David Brewster is certainly already a member of the local establishment elite, but this is a publication that could shake things up - perhaps continuing his contributing record of societal progress through two generations, not just one.

A good case in point has been their excellent coverage of local transportation issues. Currently the most popular article is a piece by former UW Geographer/Demographer Professor Richard Morrill. (Disclosure - I studied under Dr. Morrill at the UW - this reference though is not so nepotistic as it might seem, but that is a longer story.) Besides Dr. Morrill, Emory Bundy, another local civic legend, has also contributed, as has Brewster himself. The topic in its entirety is referenced in a sidebar.

If you wish to educate yourself on these subjects there is probably no better an investment of time than that spent here. Perhaps most significant is the quality of the comments. Actual debate occurs - going into subjects honestly that are perhaps to sensitive for a prudent professional. An occassional raver will show up, but it is the exception, not the rule.

Among those contributors is David Sucher. Mr. Sucher is a published author himself, as well as a bit of a role model, por moi. I'd highly recommend his accessible and useful book 'City Comforts', now in its second printing. Urban Planning is a somewhat mysterious subject, but Sucher gets his hands on it - not to mention living his life, and business, by some of its principles.

October 31, 2007

Following the Money, Energetically

The recently announced sale of Puget Energy struck me as curious - this is a major business event. The brevity, finality, and timing of this action all have drawn my attention.

There isn't much published detail out there - the proclaimed motivations about the need for capital may well be a factor, but these aren't folks with bad credit and they certainly aren't anywhere near bankruptcy. Their five and ten year stock performance is solid, slightly above the benchmark performance of the S&P 500, but significantly below that of other utility stocks.

PSE is highly regulated by the State Utilities and Transportation Commission - and their return is subject to law - their financials, to me, indicate a fair and effective regulatory environment - beating the S&P by 1% is certainly a good return and one not usurious, as other private utilities, in this era of Enron, may have been able to obtain. The sale will not effect this at all - it will however remove the SEC from the regulatory loop - which presumably has some relationships with local regulatory agencies.

The current chairmanship of the UTC by former Seattle City Attorney Mark Sidran is perhaps the most factually based red flag of this deal. Mark Sidran has been involved in other highly controversial public/private deals with Puget Energy legal representatives(Preston, Gates, and Ellis) - most notably the HUD distressed area financing for a downtown parking garage in an upscale shopping district.

As a blogger I am hopefully allowed a bit more room to speculate - using the motley tools of Occam's Razor (aka Keep It Simple Stupid) and my personal favorite, 'Follow the Money'.

My original thought was that this was some sort of global energy deal taking Enron's practices worldwide - perhaps with Chinese Money. Perhaps also part of the 'hedging' going on with Halliburton style engineering contracts now being considered as a part of a current proposal by another Preston, Gates, Ellis client - a potentially 157 billion 50 year deal to build light rail, and some roads based on local taxing/bonding authority.

Like me, the Wall Street Journal has published some investigative speculations into this matter. This got me to thinking about motivations of intra-family politics as opposed to global - and these factors may well be in the mix. The iconic former Puget Energy President, John Ellis, has a brother, Jim. Jim was, at the height of his game, legal counsel for Puget Energy, and perhaps the single most powerful attorney in private practice - he is the Ellis in Preston, Gates, and Ellis.

That position of status is now held by the firm's prior family law specialist, Bill Gates Sr. Microsoft is also within the firm's stable, and one has to wonder if there is perhaps some aspect of global dealings in order to build relationships that will help them stand up against the heavy oversight they are now getting in Europe. There may well also be some standing anonomosity whereas Gates was once subordinate to Ellis. Now, I'm not one to say that nepotistic legal representation should be outlawed by the SEC, but it is certainly an area worthy of investigation and a heuristic red flag for any regulator. I'd suggest looking into the relationship between Microsoft and another globally merged PGE Client, Airborne Express. Airborne (now owned by the state Monopoly, Deutsche Post and operating as DHL) held the MS air courier contract - a contract that may not have been in the best interests of MS shareholders (and certainly quite lucrative to Airborne).

I did some digging into this subject in order to quench my curiousity. Puget Energy's own statement reveals little, save perhaps the shallowness of press coverage. State Attorney General Rob McKenna's Public Counsel (a pfellow with a pfunny name, Simon ffitch) has released a statement which outlines future steps as I've done above.

Conclusion - it is not a done deal, it is still subject to regulatory and shareholder approval. Absent a more informed shareholder making claims to the contrary I will accept the assertions of Puget Energy Corporate that both steps are likely to be accomplished.

Continuing my research I looked into the lead partner, Macquarie Infrastructure. Macquarie is one of the few Investment Banks in Australia and are traded on the NYSE - stock symbol MIC. There holdings include a recently completed deal to aquire Pittsburg based Duquesne Light and a company called Atlantic Aviation Services who provide fueling services at 70 US Airports - curious of course due this being the home to Boeing Commercial. They do have some history of green power work - but nothing particulary innovative, nor for that matter is there anything particularly negative that showed up in my quick search.

Okay, so here is my conclusion as to what is going on. It is purely speculative, call it, if you will, a journalistic hypothesis, sent into the ether like a radar ping sent into the atmosphere:

There are certainly conversations among global energy providers - quite private as such are closely watched by, among others, the SEC. These business relationships probably reach into the engineering and construction firms building another Preston, Gates, and Ellis project, Sound Transit 2, and the timing may well be a power signal to those who watch, including the lower ranks in middle management (and Christine Gregoire and Patty Murray?). The removal of the SEC from regulatory link will allow a brief opportunity for PGE friend UTC Chair Mark Sidran to advance a profitable agenda in this post Enron era. The desirability of this outcome is still to be determined and close oversight will help to insure that it is positive. The UTC and the SEC, for different reasons, cannot be relied upon to provide that oversight. (The SEC loses jurisdiction when the company goes private.)

Based on my quick review I'd give Macquarie a preliminary 6 or 7 on a 1-10 scale of global corporate responsibility - maybe a shred better than the oil industry, and probably much better than companies like Haliburton and/or Blackwater. There doesn't appear to be Chinese money behind the deal, but the declining status of the US on world financial markets is noteworthy - as is the greater advantage of Chinese success accruing to Australia and British Columbia. Best case is that we will join in that advantage, but the better bet are the raising of prices to raise profitability of the utility to at least Industry standards. (Eastside Investors currently holding Puget Energy stocks or bonds may wish to investigate Macquarie as an investment.)

BTW - today(10/31) is the last day to get your free water conserving showerhead, sponsored by local utilities, including Puget Energy.

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